The concept of the “ladder of inference” was originally articulated by Chris Argyris but was brought to the mainstream in 1994 with the “5th Discipline Fieldbook” written by Peter Senge. The concept has become one of the most effective tools in understanding and explaining why we so often get into conflict and fail to get resolution. It is a logical representation of the natural process of decision making used by humans. Please excuse my butchery, but the logical flow is as such:

No surprises here, correct? We are all familiar with the concept and those who are not can understand the logic. In short, we see the world through a skewed vision which varies drastically from person to person. The application of the concept comes into play with the age old expression of “jumping to conclusions”.

The Reflexive Loop

The truly damaging impact of this logic doesn’t come into play until you consider the concept of the reflexive loop. Referencing the logical steps, the loop occurs when the “world views” defined in step #5 begin to influence the “data set” of step #2. The result, an intensifying bias gravitating toward a single perspective.

As an example, let us use a recent article published by KnowlegeNetwork regarding its study of 500 people and the impact of social media. The conclusion was less than stellar.

“But for all the media industry’s hype and buzz surrounding social networks, microblogs, and other social networking platforms, the genre has failed to become much of a marketing medium, and in the opinion of the Knowledge Networks’ analysts, likely never will.”

Wow. Really? Ok. Certainly in life all things are possible, but I would be remiss to not mention one thing…never use the word “never”. Craig Barrett, former CEO of Intel Corporation, once said, “a billion of anything is a lot”. How about a billion shared pieces of content on Facebook every week? How about 10 million new Twitter subscribers every month?

No one can argue the volume of usage, but what has been argued is the effectiveness of marketing within these new channels. The constant beat of the “How will Twitter monetize” drum can be heard up and down Silicon Valley. How can anyone use Flicker effectively? Where is the data to support the theory?

The Loop in Play

Here is the problem. The data doesn’t truly exist yet. You can see the example of the Reflexive Loop in play as analysts and pundits beat the drum of proof when historically, proof never exists until the solution has been developed. Analysts are using results of previous outcomes to dictate the data selected for future predictions within a singular world view. When has this approach ever worked well?

True integration of online brand footprint with structured marketing campaigns and subsequent analytics across the social media spectrum is required before any decisions can be made. But, of course, once that solution exists, wouldn’t we as marketers have the necessary tool set to make proper decisions to insure social media marketing is a success? My answer would be yes.

Ultimately, we simply lack an informed perspective. We inherently believe, based on previously defined world views, that certain methods will work and work well. But, the proof is in the pudding and unfortunately, the pudding is still on the stove.

A Logical Progression

Now the hunt for social media integrated tool sets begins. Sure enough, here comes up start Optify with a B2B media footprint engine. Services boasted include anonymous website visitor lead capture and Twitter marketing consolidation and results tracking. Results tracking from Twitter? I thought Twitter could not be used for inbound marketing purposes? Optify is based in Seattle (the web 2.0 startup hub) and appears to be off and running after securing over $2.5 in first round financing.

Additionally, Hubspot, fresh off its second round of financing producing $12 million in investment, appears to have an equally broad tool set with even greater integration. Hubspot, based in Cambridge Mass, is expanding quickly and is very active in promoting the concept of inbound marketing in multiple avenues.

Expect more tool sets directed toward B2B service offerings for Fortune 1000 companies in the near future. These service offerings will bridge the gap between social marketing campaigns and resulting sales with integrated reporting and logic based action analysis.

Summary

We will soon know the reality around social media marketing once these companies and others like them begin to refine their product set. Once this occurs, the truth will be known as real data never lies.

Never bet against ingenuity. Wait, did I just say never?